中國(guó)對(duì)“一帶一路”沿線國(guó)家直接投資結(jié)構(gòu)圖景及其演進(jìn)動(dòng)力
發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-06-25 來源: 幽默笑話 點(diǎn)擊:
[摘 要]基于2003—2016年面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行靜態(tài)圖景描述發(fā)現(xiàn),中國(guó)對(duì)“一帶一路”沿線國(guó)家OFDI傾向于投向大市場(chǎng)國(guó)、低成本國(guó)和近鄰國(guó)。計(jì)量分析顯示,東道國(guó)實(shí)際GDP、人均國(guó)民收入及其與中國(guó)的距離是這種結(jié)構(gòu)形成的決定性因素,中國(guó)實(shí)際GDP、對(duì)東道國(guó)工程承包、國(guó)際貿(mào)易及雙邊投資保護(hù)協(xié)定也具有正向作用。據(jù)此判斷,隨著中國(guó)及東道國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、中國(guó)對(duì)外工程承包和對(duì)外貿(mào)易擴(kuò)大及“一帶一路”基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施互聯(lián)互通,中國(guó)對(duì)沿線國(guó)家OFDI規(guī)模必將持續(xù)擴(kuò)大,并更多地流向經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)快、低成本優(yōu)勢(shì)突出國(guó)和遠(yuǎn)距離國(guó)。因此,在發(fā)展策略方面,對(duì)外投資企業(yè)應(yīng)與其他對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)主體密切協(xié)作,努力推動(dòng)?xùn)|道國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。政府應(yīng)統(tǒng)一規(guī)劃、整體布局、協(xié)調(diào)推進(jìn)各種對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng),維持、擴(kuò)大和提升與各國(guó)的友好合作關(guān)系,以創(chuàng)造一個(gè)良好的國(guó)際環(huán)境。
[關(guān)鍵詞]“一帶一路”;對(duì)外直接投資;投資動(dòng)機(jī);投資環(huán)境
[中圖分類號(hào)]F125.5
[文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼]A
[文章編號(hào)]2095-3283(2018)02-0077-07
Abstract: By the static view describing based on the data during 2003 to 2016, it is found that China"s OFDI in countries along the Belt and Road is mainly invested in the big market, low-cost producers and near abroad. According to the econometric analysis, the real GDP, per capita income of the host countries and the distance from China are the decisive factors for the structure, while the real GDP, overseas project contracting and trade of China and bilateral investment protection agreement exerting promoting effect. It can be inferred that China"s OFDI to the Belt and Road will expand continuously and greater share will be invested to the countries with faster economic growth, more outstanding low-cost advantage or long distance along with economic growth and China"s overseas project contracting and trade expansion and the developing of infrastructure connectivity in the area. So, as a development strategies, each oversea investment enterprise should work closely with other foreign economic entities and try to contribute to the host country economy, and government should pay attention to the unified planning, overall layout and coordinated progress for all kinds of external economic activities, maintain, expand and enhance the relationship of friendly cooperation to create a good international environment.
Keywords: the Belt and the Road; OFDI; Investment Motivation; Investment Environments
一、引言
隨著越來越多國(guó)家的參與,“一帶一路”已經(jīng)成為由我國(guó)倡導(dǎo)的面向全球、開放的合作機(jī)制與平臺(tái),其所涉范圍已遠(yuǎn)超最初的地理界定。但為了便于比較和獲取統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),不與全球范圍相重合,本文仍沿用最初的界定,即包含亞、歐、非66個(gè)國(guó)家和地區(qū)。
自從2013年9月習(xí)近平主席提出倡議以來,中國(guó)對(duì)“一帶一路”沿線國(guó)家的OFDI迅速扭轉(zhuǎn)相對(duì)落后狀態(tài)①,其流量占中國(guó)對(duì)全球OFDI比重由2013年的26.53%提高到2015年的34.71%。但從2016年6月起卻出現(xiàn)了同比下降,全年下降2.12%,2017年1-11月同比再降7.3%。這樣看來,我國(guó)對(duì)沿線國(guó)家OFDI的波動(dòng)性較大。那么,這種波動(dòng)主要由何種原因?qū)е?或者說對(duì)哪些國(guó)家的投資對(duì)這種波動(dòng)起了決定性作用?厘清這些問題,對(duì)于采取正確的發(fā)展策略具有重要意義。本文通過結(jié)構(gòu)圖景描述和演進(jìn)動(dòng)力分析來加以闡釋。
通過中國(guó)知網(wǎng)文獻(xiàn)搜索發(fā)現(xiàn),截至2017年12月31日,含關(guān)鍵詞“一帶一路”和“對(duì)外直接投資”的經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理科學(xué)類期刊文獻(xiàn)共94篇,論證所涉范圍主要有:“一帶一路”倡議對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)不同地區(qū)對(duì)外投資的影響,對(duì)沿線國(guó)家OFDI的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、空間布局戰(zhàn)略、與我國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)系,我國(guó)對(duì)沿線各子區(qū)域的OFDI等。雖然缺乏針對(duì)結(jié)構(gòu)的專門研究,但部分學(xué)者關(guān)于我國(guó)對(duì)沿線各國(guó)OFDI決定和影響因素的實(shí)證研究對(duì)這一問題有所涉及。
相關(guān)熱詞搜索:圖景 演進(jìn) 沿線 中國(guó) 直接投資
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