Speculation about who will replace Kofi Annan as UN secretary general, heats up 　　
　　
　　Thai Vice Prime Minister Surakiart Sathirathai
　　
　　Only nine months remain in Kofi Annan’s term as UN secretary general, and there is a lot of speculation about who will step into the position after that, or more specifically, whether an Asian will become the eighth secretary general in the world body’s history.
　　Annan’s second five-year term expires on December 31. When the race for his job started, people were reminded of the tradition that there is a geographical rotation to fill the top diplomatic post at the UN. To date, three secretaries general have come from Europe, two from Africa, one from Latin America and one from Asia. It has been 34 years since an Asian, U Thant of Myanmar, served in the job. Therefore, many believe it is Asia’s turn.
　　Right now, three men are among favorite candidates for the continent: South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki Moon, Thai Vice Prime Minister Surakiart Sathirathai and Jayantha Dhanapala, a senior adviser to the Sri Lankan president.
　　They all have made known their intention to seek the post. Among them, Surakiart and Dhanapala have been lobbying since last year, and both participated in the Davos Forum of world political and business leaders in January.
　　Surakiart, 48, an academic-turned-diplomat, presents himself as a proponent of reform, human rights and fiscal responsibility. He is supported by the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations and many other countries.
　　South Korea’s Ban, 62, argues that his election as UN chief would help inject new momentum into efforts to settle the Korean nuclear issue through the vehicle of the six-party talks involving China, North Korea, the United States, South Korea, Japan and Russia.
　　Dhanapala, 68, once UN Under Secretary General for Disarmament, is believed to be a strong candidate because of his internationally recognized diplomatic reputation.
　　The candidates, while competing with one another, all agree on one thing: It is Asia’s turn to hold the top UN post.
　　Dhanapala said, “We are not asking for affirmative action for Asia. But there has been a tradition of rotation; this is why there is a widespread consensus that the next secretary general should come from Asia.”
　　According to the customary practice, the UN secretary general is not chosen from among the five permanent member countries of the Security Council. But, because these countries have veto power, they have a decisive say on his/her selection. The candidate is recommended by the Security Council and then approved by the General Assembly. As an international civil servant, the secretary general is responsible for the UN, undertaking that he/she will not seek or accept any directive from any government or authority other than the world body.
　　Lack of consensus
　　Unlike other votes within the Security Council, which are conducted in an open forum, the vote on the secretary general candidate is conducted by secret ballot. Even if a candidate is rejected, and everyone knows which country used its veto power, no official record is kept.
　　
　　South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki Moon
　　
　　China and Russia, two permanent Security Council members, have clearly expressed their view that an Asian should be chosen as Annan’s successor. Chinese Ambassador to the UN Wang Guangya said China believes the continent, with its huge population, can provide the most qualified candidate. On February 22, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Liu Jianchao pointed out that no Asian has been appointed to the post for a long time, and therefore it is Asia’s turn now.
　　Russian chief’s UN representative Andrei Denisov agreed with the Chinese stand.
　　U.S. Ambassador to the UN John Bolton, however, does not seem convinced by that informal tradition of rotation. “Not so fast, we don’t believe that the next secretary general belongs to any particular region,” he said.
　　The U.S. Government has been focusing on the candidates for secretary general, given its contentious relationship with the world body and the fact that officially it is the largest financial contributor to the organization.
　　Bolton has expressed his view of making the UN a more effective organization that operates well in the 21st century, stressing the secretary general is a major component of this effort.
　　“We are looking for the best person capable of meeting the demands of the job, including the capability to lead the reform of the UN,” echoed British Ambassador Emyr Jones Parry.
　　Against this backdrop, France’s stance is particularly significant. When President Jacques Chirac made his first state visit to Thailand in mid-February, he was asked by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to support the Thai candidate. “If it were to be Asia’s turn, we (Thailand) stand a very good chance,” Thaksin said.
　　According to Chinese observers, as the international situation becomes more complex, especially against the backdrop of globalization and the antiterrorism campaign, the role of the UN, as the coordinating body for all countries and a platform of multilateral diplomacy, appears more important than before. As a result, they agree a secretary general can exert more influence on dealing with the ever-changing world situation.
　　
　　Singing the same tune
　　
　　The United States and Britain have indicated that they believe a candidate from Eastern Europe should get the post. “If there’s really a principle of geographical rotation, fairness indicates that Eastern Europe get [an opportunity],” Bolton said. “Asia has already had a secretary general. When does Eastern Europe get its turn?”
　　The U.S. proposal is welcomed by East European countries. Romanian Foreign Minister Mircea Geoana once noted, “There is nothing in the charter that says it’s Asia’s turn. The geographical rotation is a wheel of fortune that can stop at our house, too.”
　　For Washington, the next UN secretary general should be one it can accept, someone who does not “sing a different tune,” said Zhang Guoqing, an expert on U.S. affairs at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. In other words, the incoming UN chief should have the ability and consciousness of cooperating with the United States. “In this sense, it is not strange for Bolton to stand for an East European candidate.”
　　
　　Jayantha Dhanapala: Sri Lankan Senior Presidential Adviser
　　However, observers argue it will not be easy for Bolton to guarantee an East European secretary general, for even though geographical rotation is not a set convention, it has won popular support.
　　Zhang told Beijing Review he does not agree with Bolton’s logic of dividing Europe into several parts. In Bolton’s mind, Central Europe had one UN secretary general and Northern Europe had two; therefore it is Eastern Europe’s turn. Accordingly, since Asia had only one secretary general, who was from South Asia, East Asia, West Asia and Central Asia can all expect their turn now.
　　Zhang continued, “I think an Asian should be the next UN secretary general, for the geographical rotation is indeed a consensus among most countries. Without a valid reason, it should not be broken.”
　　He cited three other reasons why an Asian should win the post. First, Asia has been developing into the engine of the world economy and is gaining more political importance. As the continent enjoys rising status in the international arena, it deserves a UN secretary general.
　　Second, it is possible for an Asian secretary general to come from a country that is friendly toward the United States. For example, Thailand and South Korea are major allies of the United States. “It brings Washington no benefit if it offends them, in terms of U.S. influence in Asia,” Zhang added.
　　Third, from the perspective of power relations, vetoing an Asian candidate is risky, as China and Russia both stand behind an Asian secretary general.
　　Last month, the 53-member African Union joined Asian countries in reaffirming the latter’s claim for the top UN post. The two groups, with Asian membership of 50, comprise more than half of the 191 member states of the United Nations.
　　“At the last moment, it is difficult to use the veto power to deny an Asian candidate. It is a serious political choice,” Zhang said. “The United States is unlikely to take the risk of offending so many countries. In addition, Annan himself favors a successor from Asia when he leaves office.”
　　The reason why the United States, together with Britain, raised the point that the UN secretary general should be from Eastern Europe is to seek a bigger say in the world body, which does not necessarily mean they will really reject an Asian one, Zhang contended. “U.S. attempts to foil Asia’s claim for the top UN job may be disguised. The next secretary general should be one that Washington can accept. On antiterrorism, the environment and other issues, Washington needs UN assistance, so a secretary general who is not against [the country] is important.”
　　Bolton has said that personal ability is the most important factor in choosing the next UN chief; he should be accepted by all sides and devoted to UN reform.
　　Shi Yongming, a researcher with the China Institute of International Studies, agreed with Zhang. “It is very likely that an Asian will be elected as the secretary general. But should he be an Asian Washington can accept.”
　　Observers say that when the final moment comes, coordination among major powers and among Asian countries is important. All statements and gestures that have been made show that if Asians stick together, the United States can hardly ignore the principle of continental rotation.
　　“Now the only problem lies in Asia itself. If Asians agree on a candidate, then he is very likely to win the top UN post,” said Shi.

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